Update of the trend by countries (colors: red=situation got worse since my last post; green=getting better; blue=new country on the list)
- Exponential growth (the number of new cases grows everyday by a roughly constant rate): none.
- Accelerating (the number of new cases grows everyday but the growth rate is decreasing) with negative perspective (might become exponential growth): Panama.
- Accelerating: India, Chile, Mexico, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, South Africa, Colombia, Indonesia, Ukraine, Argentina, Oman, Nigeria, Guatemala, Honduras, Nepal, Cote d'Ivoire, North Macedonia, Ethiopia, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Costa Rica, South Sudan, Albania, Equatorial Guinea, Jordan, Cabo Verde, Yemen.
- Accelerating with positive perspective (the growth of the number of new cases seems to have stopped but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Brazil, Peru, Iran, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Bolivia, Bahrain, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Kenya, Venezuela, CAR, Mauritania.
- Linear (the number of new cases is roughly constant) with negative perspective (more new cases have been seen recently but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Turkey, Sweden, Dominican Republic, Romania, Kosovo,
Moldova, Uzbekistan, El Salvador.
- Linear: Ecuador, Poland, Ghana, Cameroon, Senegal, DRC, Guinea, Gabon, Somalia, Kyrghyzstan, Mali, Nicaragua, Guinea-Bissau, Lebanon, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Congo.
- Linear with positive perspective (the number of new cases is roughly constant or slowly decreasing for a quite long period or has decreased recently): USA, Russia, UK, Canada, Qatar, Belarus, UAE, Singapore, Portugal, Kuwait, Philippines, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Morocco, Malaysia, Sudan, Tajikistan, Maldives, Paraguay, Madagascar.
- Decelarating with negative perspective (The amount of daily cases is still low but some recent indicators show that the epidemic could be stable at current level or rise again or the country has recently started its deconfinement while the epidemic was not under control): Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Austria, Denmark, Serbia, South Korea, Czech Republic, Georgia.
- Decelerating: Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Burkina Faso.
- Decelerating with positive perspective (the number of daily cases is continuously decreasing and is already at a quite low level): Finland, Hungary, Greece, Cuba, Lithuania, Chad, Uruguay.
- Extinction with negative perspective (the epidemic is under control on most part of the country but new cases have been discovered recently and might lead to a new wave): China.
- Extinction (the number of daily cases is very low and stable or decreasing): Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, Australia, Luxembourg, Thailand, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Tunisia, Cyprus, Niger, Andorra.
- Extinction with positive perspective (no or almost no new daily cases and a small number of still active cases in the country): Croatia (5 remaining cases), Iceland (4 cases)
- Extinct: New Zealand (among those on the list of countries with more cases than Diamond Princess).
Some additional comments about Europe: in big countries (Spain, Italy, France and Germany), the epidemic stopped slowing down at the same rate as several weeks ago, which can be explained by the deconfinement and by more accurate researches on clusters. However, in these countries, even if the epidemic stayed stable, it wouldn't be a big issue. The activity of the virus is even extremely low on most of the territory of these countries, like for example in Italy, where most of the new cases are located in Lombardia, in the provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo. In most of other regions, there is 0 or 1 daily case. However, we can see that in some other European countries (mostly outside of European Union), the epidemic restarted.
We still can't know how the situation will evolve in China. We could still have a scenario like in Wuhan several weeks ago, or in the province of Jilin, where we saw a local and temporary rise of the number of cases.