Post by italix on Jun 27, 2020 13:46:12 GMT 1
Update of the trend by countries (colors: red=situation got worse since my last post; green=getting better; blue=new country on the list).
- Exponential growth (the number of new cases grows everyday by a roughly constant rate): none.
- Accelerating (the number of new cases grows everyday but the growth rate is decreasing) with negative perspective (might become exponential growth): none.
- Accelerating: USA, Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Ukraine, Iraq, Oman, Panama, Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Romania, Nigeria, Israel, Kazakhstan, Honduras, Guatemala, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Morocco, Cote d'Ivoire, Uzbekistan, El Salvador, Kenya, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Costa Rica, Croatia, Kosovo, Palestine, Congo, Cabo Verde, Malawi.
- Accelerating with positive perspective (the growth of the number of new cases seems to have stopped but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Peru, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Armenia, Moldova, Nepal, Ethiopia, Venezuela, Bosnia, Albania, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Jordan, Benin, Rwanda, Libya.
- Linear (the number of new cases is roughly constant) with negative perspective (more new cases have been seen recently but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Sweden, Indonesia, Kuwait, Portugal, Serbia, Cameroon, Czech Republic, DRC, North Macedonia, Paraguay.
- Linear: Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Ecuador, Philippines, Poland, Ghana, Senegal, Gabon, Nicaragua, Lebanon, Burkina Faso, Uruguay.
- Linear with positive perspective (the number of new cases is roughly constant or slowly decreasing for a quite long period or has decreased recently): Russia, UK, Pakistan, Canada, Qatar, Belarus, UAE, Afghanistan, Sudan, Haiti, Guinea, CAR, Somalia, Maldives, Mali, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Yemen, Uganda, Mozambique, Eswatini, Sao Tome and Principe.
- Decelarating with negative perspective (The amount of daily cases is still low but some recent indicators show that the epidemic could be stable at current level or rise again or the country has recently started its deconfinement while the epidemic was not under control): Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Japan, Austria, Denmark, South Korea, Greece.
- Decelarating with negative perspective (The amount of daily cases is still low but some recent indicators show that the epidemic could be stable at current level or rise again or the country has recently started its deconfinement while the epidemic was not under control): Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Japan, Austria, Denmark, South Korea, Greece.
- Decelerating: Netherlands, Singapore, Tajikistan, Sri Lanka, Georgia.
- Decelerating with positive perspective (the number of daily cases is continuously decreasing and is already at a quite low level): Malaysia, Djibouti, Cuba.
- Extinction with negative perspective (the epidemic is under control on most part of the country but new cases have been discovered recently and might lead to a new wave): China, Switzerland, Australia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Slovenia, Niger.
- Extinction (the number of daily cases is very low and stable or decreasing): Ireland, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Thailand, Estonia, Lithuania, Tunisia, Latvia, Cyprus.
- Extinction with positive perspective (no or almost no new daily cases and a small number of still active cases in the country): Iceland (9 cases), New Zealand (16 cases), Chad (13 cases), Andorra (4 cases)
- Extinct: none (from the countries above 712 cases - number of cases of Diamond Princess).
Some additional comments:
About USA, the epidemic is still decreasing in many States but a few ones are enough to reverse the global trend, in particular Florida, California, Texas and Arizona.
About France, the epidemic is also decreasing in the majour part of the country but one departement now represents half of the daily cases of the whole country: French Guiana (more than 200 daily cases, and probably more in reality because local authorities lack of testing kits).
I also decided to add some informations about countries below the number of cases of Diamond Princess and that have a few or non remaining cases. I'll distinguish three categories:
- Countries with high GDP that have higher chances to detect new clusters: San Marino (0 active cases), Taiwan (5 cases), Brunei (0 cases), Monaco (3 cases), Liechtenstein (0 cases), Vatican City (0 cases),
- Countries with lower GDP that are more likely to have missed new clusters: Mauritius (5 cases), Cambodia (10 cases), Trinidad and Tobago (7 cases), Bahamas (9 cases), Barbados (0 cases), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (0 cases), Belize (4 cases), Timor Leste (0 cases), Grenada (3 cases), Laos (0 cases), Saint Lucia (0 cases), Dominica (0 cases), Fiji (0 cases), Saint Kitts and Navis (0 cases), Papua New Guinea (3 cases), Seychelles (0 cases), Western Sahara (1 case).
- Countries that claim to be coronavirus-free but never announced any cases or stopped revealing their statistics: Tanzania, Turkmenistan, North Korea.